MTG Mulligan Guide by Format: When to Keep, Ship, or Risk It

Overview

The London mulligan made opening hands more flexible, but it did not make every borderline seven-card hand playable. The hard part is not knowing the rule. The hard part is knowing what your deck needs from its first two or three turns and how much risk your format allows.

That is why the best answer to when to mulligan MTG is usually not a single rule like “always keep two lands” or “never go below six.” Instead, use a layered checklist:

1. Can this hand function on mana? Count lands, color access, and whether your deck can realistically cast spells on curve.
2. Does this hand do what your deck is built to do? A reactive control hand and an aggressive one-drop hand follow different standards.
3. How punishing is the format? Faster formats punish stumbles. Slower formats let you keep more speculative hands.
4. Are you on the play or draw? The draw supports slightly looser keeps because you get another card before your second turn.
5. What is the cost of going to six? Some decks mulligan well because they need one specific engine. Others lose too much cardboard.

These five questions cover most opening hands better than memorized heuristics. They also scale across formats. A seven-card hand in Standard may be a clear keep, while the same structure in Modern may be too slow, and in Commander it may be fine because the game starts at a lower average speed and your commander can supply direction later.

Before moving format by format, it helps to define three terms:

• Keep: Your hand is functional and supports a reasonable game plan.
• Ship: Your hand fails a basic requirement, usually mana, color access, or relevant early action.
• Risk it: The hand is imperfect but has enough payoff, redundancy, or draw support that keeping is defensible.

If you only remember one idea from this article, make it this: mulligans are not about finding a perfect hand. They are about avoiding hands that fail too often for your deck and format.

Template structure

Use this template every time you look at an opening hand. It is simple enough for ladder play and detailed enough for tournaments.

1. Check mana count first

Most mulligans begin and end with mana. Ask:

• How many lands do I have?
• Do those lands cast my early spells?
• If I miss my next land drop, can I still play meaningful Magic?
• If I draw extra lands, does the hand still have something to do?

For many fair decks, two to four lands is the normal keep range, but the real issue is not the raw count. It is whether your first two turns work. Two lands with both colors and a one-two-three curve can be better than three lands that leave key spells stranded.

2. Identify your deck’s role

Do not judge all hands by the same standard.

• Aggro wants early pressure and usually cannot keep slow, reactive hands without strong mana.
• Midrange wants stable mana and a mix of early interaction and threats.
• Control wants land drops, color stability, and enough early plays to avoid falling behind.
• Combo wants enablers, velocity, protection, or enough time to assemble them.
• Ramp wants acceleration plus payoffs or card selection to reach them.

A hand can be functional on mana and still be a bad keep because it does not match the deck’s role. A control deck with three lands and all five-drops is not really functional. An aggro deck with five lands and two medium threats may technically cast spells, but it is probably not doing its job.

3. Map the first three turns

One of the cleanest standard mulligan tips and general MTG heuristics is to narrate your first three turns before you keep. It can be quick:

Turn one tapped land, turn two removal spell, turn three threat.

Or:

Turn one nothing, turn two nothing unless I draw source B, turn three maybe a two-drop.

If the first version sounds coherent and the second sounds like hope, you have your answer.

4. Separate payoff from probability

Players often keep a hand because the ceiling is attractive. The better question is how often the hand gets there. A one-land hand with cantrips may feel exciting, but unless your deck is built to convert that keep into a stable start, it is still a low-probability line. The same goes for a combo hand missing one key color, or a creature curve with no second land.

When deciding whether to risk it, ask:

• How many draws help?
• How many draws help immediately?
• How many draws only partly solve the problem?

The more specific your out, the worse the keep tends to be.

5. Price in matchup and format speed

You do not always know the exact opponent, especially in open ladder queues, but you usually know the format’s pace. Faster formats punish stumbling harder. Slower formats let you keep hands that are a turn off if the payoff is high.

This is the heart of modern mulligan strategy versus casual Commander logic. In Modern, many decks can punish a missed early turn immediately. In Commander, a slow hand may be survivable if it ramps into a productive midgame and your table is not hyper-optimized.

6. Compare seven cards to six cards honestly

Many players keep weak sevens because they imagine every six will be worse. That is often untrue. The London mulligan lets you see a fresh hand and put one back, which means some decks become quite good at finding a cleaner six. If your seven has one major structural problem, such as no second color, no early play, or no pressure in an aggro shell, a six with a coherent plan may be stronger.

As a rule of thumb, keep the weaker seven only if its failure case is acceptable and its average draw is still playable.

How to customize

The framework above becomes much stronger when you tailor it to format and deck type. Here is how to adjust your standards.

Standard

Standard is often the best place to learn disciplined mulligans because the card pool is smaller and openings are easier to map. Your hand usually needs:

• Reliable mana in your first two colors
• A clear turn-two or turn-three play
• At least one card that matters in the expected midgame

In Standard, many keeps come down to whether your hand curves naturally. Two lands plus a smooth sequence is often fine. Three lands plus no early impact is more dangerous than it looks, especially against proactive decks. If you are unsure, ask whether the hand interacts early or establishes board presence before turn three.

For slower Standard decks, prioritize land drops and color access over flashy payoffs. For faster decks, prioritize pressure and curve over raw card quantity.

Modern

Modern demands tighter discipline because many games are decided by efficiency. This is where when to mulligan MTG becomes less about comfort and more about structural quality. Modern opening hands often need one of the following:

• A powerful proactive start
• Cheap interaction that lines up well
• A compact engine or combo setup
• Mana that enables all of the above immediately

Speculative hands get worse when your opponent can present fast pressure, disruptive elements, or a game-ending engine before you stabilize. A hand that “works if I draw exactly one untapped source” is usually not where you want to be. By contrast, some linear decks mulligan very well because a six-card hand with a real plan is better than a seven-card hand that does not function.

If you follow MTG Tournament Results Hub: Weekly Winning Decklists by Format, use those lists not to copy one exact mulligan rule, but to study what successful decks consider essential in the first two turns.

Commander

A practical commander opening hand guide starts with a different assumption: multiplayer games are generally slower, card advantage matters over a longer arc, and your commander can smooth identity or function. That changes your keep standards.

In many Commander pods, a good opening hand includes:

• Three lands or two lands plus reliable acceleration
• Access to your colors
• At least one early setup piece: ramp, draw, or low-cost interaction
• A reason the hand scales into turns four through six

Hands full of expensive spells are common traps. So are hands with lands and no velocity. Commander rewards starts that build resources rather than merely survive. If your opening seven lets you ramp, draw, and cast your commander on time, that is often better than a flashier hand that lacks the mana to operate.

If you are playing a preconstructed list or a lightly upgraded deck, your mulligans may need to be a bit stricter because the average card quality and redundancy are lower. For ideas on smoothing deck function over time, see Best Commander Precon Upgrades by Deck Release.

Aggro decks

Aggro should mulligan hands that do not pressure early unless the matchup clearly rewards a reactive keep. Your ideal hand usually has:

• Two to three lands
• At least one early creature or pressure piece
• A curve that uses mana well

Too many lands, too many expensive spells, or no turn-one/turn-two play are common reasons to ship.

Control decks

Control should be suspicious of hands that miss land drops or cannot interact before the board gets out of hand. Good control hands usually have:

• Stable mana
• At least one cheap interactive spell or card selection piece
• A path to hitting future land drops

The trap here is keeping all reactive cards with the wrong answers or all late-game cards with no bridge to reach them.

Combo decks

Combo mulligans depend on redundancy. If your deck has many interchangeable pieces and card selection, you can keep partial setups more often. If your combo is fragile or specific, be more aggressive with mulligans. The key question is not “Do I have part of it?” but “Do I have a realistic route to assemble it before I lose?”

Examples

These examples are intentionally generic so you can reuse the logic across sets and metagames.

Example 1: Standard midrange on the play

Hand: Two lands, both colors available; a two-drop removal spell; a three-drop creature; a four-drop value card; two late-game spells.

Decision: Keep.

Why: Mana works, curve begins on turn two, and the hand has both interaction and pressure. Even if you miss a land on turn three, you still have a meaningful first play and a route into the midgame.

Example 2: Standard aggro on the draw

Hand: Four lands, two three-drops, one combat trick.

Decision: Usually ship.

Why: The hand technically functions, but it does not do aggro’s job early enough. Being on the draw helps slightly, but not enough to justify a hand with no early threat and weak mana usage.

Example 3: Modern combo

Hand: One land, one cantrip, one combo piece, one protection spell, three cards that require a second source.

Decision: Usually ship.

Why: The ceiling is high, but the hand depends on a specific next step. In a fast format, that is too fragile unless the deck is heavily built to keep these hands and has an unusually high density of functional redraws.

Example 4: Modern interactive deck

Hand: Three lands, one cheap removal spell, one discard spell, one efficient threat, one flexible midgame card.

Decision: Keep.

Why: You can interact early, deploy pressure, and use your mana efficiently. This is the kind of stable hand that punishes weaker keeps from the opponent.

Example 5: Commander ramp deck

Hand: Three lands, one two-mana ramp spell, one card draw spell, one board wipe, one expensive finisher.

Decision: Keep.

Why: The hand has mana, setup, and a useful late-game endpoint. It may not be explosive, but it is coherent and scales well in multiplayer.

Example 6: Commander battlecruiser trap

Hand: Two lands, no ramp, five spells costing four or more.

Decision: Ship.

Why: This hand does not affect the early game and depends too heavily on perfect draws. Commander’s slower pace does not mean every slow hand is acceptable.

If you want one more practical shortcut, label your hand after a five-second review:

• Functional: Keep unless matchup context strongly says otherwise.
• Speculative: Keep only if many draws fix it and the format allows time.
• Non-functional: Ship without regret.

When to update

Your mulligan rules should be revisited regularly, not because the fundamentals change every week, but because your deck, local field, and play goals do. A strong reusable framework gets better when you tune it with experience.

Update your mulligan notes when any of the following happens:

• You switch formats. A keep from Commander may be too loose for Modern.
• You change archetypes. Midrange, combo, and aggro all reward different opening structures.
• Your list changes meaningfully. New lands, more one-drops, or extra cantrips can all alter acceptable keeps.
• The metagame speeds up or slows down. If early pressure becomes more common, you must respect tempo more.
• You notice repeated opening-hand losses. Track whether you are losing because you kept hands with no early play, bad colors, or too much air.

A simple way to improve is to keep a short mulligan journal for ten to fifteen matches. Write down three things after each opening hand:

1. Why you kept or shipped
2. Whether the hand functioned by turn three
3. What your better rule would be next time

This process is especially useful if you stream, test with friends, or prepare for events. It turns vague frustration into concrete adjustments.

For a final action plan, use this checklist before your next session:

• Pick one deck.
• Define what a good opening hand looks like in one sentence.
• Identify your minimum mana requirement.
• Identify your best turn-two play or setup turn.
• Decide which speculative keeps are actually acceptable.
• Review ten opening hands after play and update your rules.

That is the durable core of an evergreen mtg mulligan guide. Do not chase perfect certainty. Build standards that match your deck, respect the format, and lead to more functional games. Once you do that, your opening hands become less stressful, your mulligan decisions become faster, and your overall results become more consistent over time.

For adjacent tournament prep, you may also want to review gear and travel organization in Best MTG Deck Boxes and Binders for Tournaments and Travel.